Bayesian Prediction

Read More about

• MCMC
• Bayesian timeseries

Find Papers on

• NTN uplink distributions
• 5G RAN Game Theory Resource Allocation
• Multi-Solution Optimization Problems

Prior distribution

• distribution parameterised by tuple (position, time)
• Poisson Point process
• Shot Noise Process
• Markov model / queue model (user connects / disconnects with some rate)
• Ask Israel about state of the art models

Observation

• UE sat asks “next” satellites at some points in time for $\alpha$
• Posterior uncertainty dictates time of next inquiry
  • $\alpha$ of future connection may be relevant to previous choice
• Optimize frequency of inquiry vs uncertainty of model
  • Maximise entropy of and minimize cost of inquiry
  • Maximum entropy is where the model has highest uncertainty
• Final choice of satellite is determined
  • Greedy algorithm
  • Game Theory?

“Next” Satellites

• Ranking of satellites from prior parameters
• Central server sends $N$ best satellites for all $[t\dots t+\Delta T]$
• Ranking is result of Large optimization problem
• How to choose multiple?
  • Find solution and remove → iterate?
  • Deviation of prior → Deviation of solution → $N$ closest to optimum?